Best in Economics this week: February 19

Some more proof on how *kuch* -in- *kuch* effective negative rates really are…

2osjPZzF-KDEeN4d2qFlmA4-Aaa2Asvzd2SghymqTgdLvp2nGP1VTGwsVisvO0a16BN2IamHEfqiPYKYJIPJt3AG4EZoX92MwvlTusBQIicufSw3KZyVTHp7immjBSAuPvIQKN78
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/02/17/2153487/yup-negative-rates-were-a-really-bad-idea/

How US ten year Treasury yields are at odds with US growth right now

screenshot 2016 02 19 06 07 00
http://www.businessinsider.com/torsten-slok-us-rates-market-significantly-mispriced-2016-2

Some trends in household debt (according to the OECD)

U_EgnZgX2zRrefKQjUh2dv2eqwG_esG_uAyyZeUlA7nTvJFTqouO9omBXR4aItNrPcpbSF1aDbtPIr6pumSxhz4-9OmKjbcvw87Bl-8sl71UfhxNchaMkByUcFrc_swur0D_qCPs

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5jm3xgtkk1f2.pdf

Somehow, I get the feeling the stock markets (and the secular stagnation thinkers) have a different view here…
AdPJlLL3Qqwo9-z7mD9-NZHOJed6Twk5hCLViq1FJt5L6U1HLwqgTEsLXNZ9ud7io3VmlBEL9oVihCV-sW3e4p5vQUQp0O-IKCuGTHX_50UojjozeixrpU1CuZuZCCXAzte8cmWe
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/sanders-campaign-has-crossed-neverland

Interesting: “Apple prices $12bn bond sale – Size of offering signals new life in debt markets”
othCJq1DJAmvU89d84BbyOYa0TvHVaL_A0EiI-s69SXm1kL0jdU_gYj-0GOvIDc6PQVPXMHn1HUCi7-2Bkwnxt_uQBX5taqcEyr0UW3i6933XjUSu8xodEL3KPSIAjxcJo6oHqq5
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/af9a76a4-d4ca-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html#axzz40MlM13hE

Can it be? Wage growth picking up? Surely the US is recession, right?
yoBALYYUacyzlav_XkgCoghbmyQQT8U0j-BVg1ESDPtbsYG4erEz6zUJP0iS9YA9dWfKJOg7NT_4Cr-dhEdd2gN3lqYuJVDQ5ftKXRCsu96TzIKM9hjMFEbR7icETK-gT0yRQjpT
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2016/02/are-paychecks-picking-up-the-pace.html

Techno-optimism spectrum
Ftsj_jfC6vjFioLxH2u33jnL43_dWwjIp4K_shE983om3ckIo4GxXEo10boD4zlQ4Y1zIrd16u6f03L8haXlR-cnK6DNnUEskdN6oCi1RCow0kFVmOaHLCedkAANdNqXQxmpLYEt
https://ultimibarbarorum.com/2016/02/16/where-are-you-on-the-techno-opto-pessimism-spectrum-will-robots-take-our-jobs-and-then-kill-us/

New Industrialism: the latest economic growth thinking
X1xWRmsFCxQxVdITUvAbcv7f6dJk-nlT7N-Tc_uYgYeiWR2_wnP4RESsBJH-1ldScQiweYrWyEFUIKZxr89fjw_srFKqoR-ry2eOzn6m_q4bvQzwbefo6dgcEhXyi7VEMjAaoP3R
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-16/the-next-big-idea-in-economic-growth

If history is anything to go by, than Europe is the most recession prone, by the looks of it
Ap9wez_8bd_yvHBgqHcDPi02L4iuBuy_e5AUDV97MLDnPR4z0kFNn1gzQaySkU3v0Sz_fbmoNp5Ukor1nmsfbTjFkCc9zgK9UajeaqednYC8gZ179CDRFR9tusMYdCuhUJjvH-s5
http://uk.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-chart-country-recession-2016-2

Weird. Downgrading everything except the growth forecast of China.
dpvO-vc28QyULC-74y4fgJLfpRGvmX7yoRsNCL9tmSAjgyIZGJyv9d4GMZWlFgRA0CFndKWtshPGe31nGcHxbrlVwuISzb2pcXO5bIre_CqbOBr4kiFSRkaurkSk0q_0HQr7Oizf
http://oecdinsights.org/2016/02/18/interim-economic-outlook-elusive-global-growth-outlook-requires-urgent-policy-response/

The way the US looks from an economic perspective
BUek-ZmZ0lazInI7rR5etBgi1zrjIZmCWf5hi8kf0vJnpTGAtylXq9FURJXWF8yb1VRbAcmJl47qvqohsYTWKXhyCtCfr8gcbNLoNZgGffiNBegL7LqAYReCNg0ITy3BIbZ2eYSQ
http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/this-map-will-change-the-way-you-see-the-us-economy

Ok, I missed it this year, but this could come in handy next year!

b3kXVUC8kNOdTrI8_VTXZ3ujAF4FLfM90fYEf18Xx79pNMyt8xWcm6oGU3vmz6eXOKo7qL6XVdMPVAZ_3V92hwUbcOmGp1DDVGSvjlvjujPrEeTlYT3UScDMrqpY-41YFgWzR9Ub

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/daily-chart-7

Clinton and Bush: big spenders, but not winning2_18_2http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-17/the-failure-of-money-to-buy-the-presidential-nomination-in-one-chart

Record high’s, but not the one’s we would like to see…
Vs0d60ynLc4ofwHJdWPirL_niHkT5zATO39S9b03hOu4HLD9GpA2Hb6F5dcVcJkheb7qDeC0U3RMrZ_KLxXJH9qt7aXrcizkehCf01HcVaWhxlXP0WsOIoFrhB0inQvGtMrsdR9U
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-02-17/global-warming-crushes-records-again

Some more reading on Chinese outflows
IdN3GGmFExYwrF1uiOyQBDts9-zUkt0yNxdz_tlmAXJ-hG43HO_GylvFS8NZNguFonPHshRP6SzSGibDQTr-NszA4Z7h3GwZacLU9po3omDa1ZmI8LUV7aRFBMvUDfvU6T8h8Hmq
https://medium.com/@ericbeebo/china-capital-flows-what-we-sort-of-know-82fe2666a2fb#.y4vjjxhkj

Finally someone sensible: the odds of a US recession are 100%. We only do not know when…
WGwLmIH0Yuc10DhZbwDWNWTtOJYJNWApVBpeBryndNqFRZhhcs728xHfkBjh5IbPbOYFI2eoPHIyuQWrn4s2Xskm0vI9u-xFGv0Ua0W4zG6HtZ9mjoDXSjJgS3Vgq9j_rjQbbDn1
http://news.forexlive.com/!/odds-of-another-us-recession-are-100-bnp-paribas-20160216

no less than 250 pages on how to save the Eurozone

kAVG8hSz4sGIQDjvw8Bp7brwIdd5uG-R_LEiysBiAwonUhMweWQycZ1VU2IcXw0Q0823XgSSrq2MwkevpflWkaULYHxObKi28kYV2I9KvO3Tl1bpkWMW1TCvgGOG4Y9f67PC5iF3

http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/file/rebooting2_web.pdf

The interesting thing is the small uptick of the green line around 65….

LkLdCLQO35haZNZ_9__Dhsez4Vnis2KNrtc5QWgsjnU__XKz0vUIs6xSZgIqQnpbo6P_4giLTrEXFZ57NLbokeqaKfqrWrafJsBZ6erCF_0AkPpZYHFm97JX8yhiAe7lpiW57Q9p

http://uk.businessinsider.com/divorce-and-marriage-by-age-charts-2016-2

 

A complete overview of all previous editions of Best of the Web Weekly Economics can be found here http://bit.ly/16dkN6i. All links provided are collected from public websites, unless otherwise specified. I have not checked the data or information for accuracy used, and therefore do not guarantee that all data provided will be 100% correct. The links provided do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion and should be seen as general interest: oftentimes I do not agree with arguments presented, but nevertheless think it is worthwhile to read them. It is up to the reader to make up their own mind. Suggestions or discussions are more than welcome. Do not quote unless specifically cleared beforehand!

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