Good morning. Meanwhile in Germany…. *yawn*
http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/media/2013InfoG/WIC-contacts/20130824a.pdf
Quiz: what’s the biggest surprise here? 1) the IMF denying 2) Reuters reporting on it, or 3) me showing the link?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/29/us-imf-greece-idUSBRE97S0P420130829
Ok, so the read line and the black line moved together for a bit. But why should the black line move to the read line and not the other way round? In fact: why should they stay together at all?
http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-emerging-market-final-tweet-2013-8
Inflation at last! In Japan, no less…
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4fe8f7e-1106-11e3-b5e4-00144feabdc0.html
“Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China” By the IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13189.pdf
Consumer spending is being boosted by the steady dissaving of the US consumers…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/its-consumer-stupid
…but still, real spending is in decline. (and no, this does not automatically mean recession as the chart seems to indicate)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/has-never-happened-outside-recession
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“(and no, this does not automatically mean recession as the chart seems to indicate)”
Could you perhaps shed some light on this statement Lukas?
Well, I see a couple of occasions in the past where the blue line dived through the red line, only to rebound with no recession taking place. “This has never happened…” is therefore a pretty stupid statement.
Also, we have never before experienced a period with this low growth following a recession.I would say that the chance of dipping below 1% is more likely in a 1.5% growth period than in a 2.5% period, but that does not mean we are heading into a recession. There is no sharp decline, it could just as well be random noise.
Added to that, I am not sure what real final sales comprise off. Is that a measure of retail and wholesale sales? That would mean it does not include the (much bigger) service component of consumption…
Lukas