Good morning. I have said it before and will say it again: the fact that two lines coincide tells
you nothing…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/party-its-1999
Trouble brewing in Venezuela: 7 dead after protests….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/venezuela-faces-turmoil-as-maduro-foes-protest-victory-decree.html
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/04/17/venezuela-vote-violence-playing-the-blame-game/
My favourite IMF chart showing how the various parts of the world economy are progressing. Or digressing.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf
Ouch! Some pretty harsh criticism on Reinhart and Rogoff concerning the 90% debt rule… Some comments
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/16/1463192/raining-on-reinhart-and-rogoff/
http://qz.com/75117/how-influential-was-the-study-warning-high-debt-kills-growth/
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/04/how-much-unemployment-was-caused-by-reinhart-and-rogoffs-arithmetic-mistake.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/did-reinhart-rogoff-screw-up-their-debt-research/
http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/16/is-the-best-evidence-for-austerity-based-on-an-excel-spreadsheet-error/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-continued/
A brave attempt to try and tell what the bottom for gold should be…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/if-gold-was-just-commodity-what-would-be-its-support-price
One of the tailwinds for the US economy at this point: falling gasoline prices
http://www.businessinsider.com/american-consumer-tailwinds-2013-4
The drop in gold seen over the last two days is this exceptional:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/presenting-golds-7-sigma-move
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A normal distribution of the gold price does not seem to be logical to me. Why would it have a normal distribution?
Interesting question. Why not, would be my response…?
Well, there could be underlying reasons why the gold price is (for example) more likely to increase in any 5-day period than to decrease in the same period (scarcity?). Another example would be that due to increased speculation the gold price increasingly suffers from outliers.
Yeah, could be. The chart looks pretty normally distributed, but I do not have the underlying data to test whether the outliers are too extreme to reject the normal distribution assumption.