Good morning. So what do the models currently tell us about Obama???s re-election chances?

(source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/14/obama-leads-in-at-least-eight-of-13-election-forecasts/)

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???Draghi says he needs to explain plan???. Draghi is looking to explain to the Germans what actions has been taken

?????????????????? http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120914.en.html

?????????????????? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3e88a7e0-fe7e-11e1-a2e2-00144feabdc0.html

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Intriguing title from the latest BIS quarterly: ???Search for yield as rates drop further??? Sounds like a good read

?????????????????? http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1209a.pdf

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Tensions are on the rise between China and Japan??? largest anti-Japan demonstrations since 1972

?????????????????? http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444108404577654632706100116.html

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I have shown something like this before, but this time it is from a study by the Dallas Fed???

?????????????????? http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2012/el1209.cfm

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???and the Taylor rule is very popular: same theme, now from the BIS

?????????????????? http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1209f.pdf

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Not the best chart, but interesting nevertheless: QE3 has pushed breakeven inflation to new highs, fast

?????????????????? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/inflation-expectations-suggest-5-inflation-cards

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Some points on the (mis) measurement of poverty in the US (and elsewhere)

?????????????????? http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.nl/2012/09/what-official-poverty-rate-is-missing.html

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This is also nice: what PE multiple stocks have traded on in various real rate scenario???s? So much for the Fed model???

?????????????????? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stocks-are-not-cheap

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QE3???

?????????????????? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/weekend-reads-37/

?????????????????? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444433504577651191991023510.html

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Nice try, but I am not impressed. Relationship between QE and market reactions to data

?????????????????? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/one-chart-explain-real-effect-qe3

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The harder they come, the harder they fall: gone is the rally in the dollar???

?????????????????? http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/14/dollar-ytd-gains-nice-knowing-you.html

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And what should we expect from the week ahead?

?????????????????? http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/schedule-for-week-of-sept-16th.html

?????????????????? http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/09/16/week-ahead-september-16-21/

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